Opinion on the draft programming bill for the rebuilding of Mayotte

The Government referred to the High Council of Public Finance the provisions of the draft programming bill for the rebuilding of Mayotte (PLPRM) having an impact on public finances. 

The Organic Law on budget laws (Lolf) provides that the High Council assesses the compatibility of these provisions with the expenditure targets set out in the current public finance programming law (PFPL) or, failing that, in the introductory article of the last budget bill. 

The High Council notes that the financial provisions communicated essentially correspond to the estimated cost of eleven investment projects, representing a total amount of €3.2bn by 2031, beyond the period covered by the PFPL. However, they do not make it possible to identify the timing of the planned expenditure, nor to isolate the share of public funding. In addition, some of the provisions of this draft programming bill, including those relating to the economic and social component, are likely to generate public expenditure that is not quantified at this stage. 

The High Council observes that the amounts involved, while constituting large-scale investments and expenditure at local level and quantified only with uncertainty, are not of an order of magnitude likely to substantially alter the multi-year trajectory of public expenditure set out in the PFPL. In fact, they would represent an average of €500 to €600 million per year over the period, equivalent to less than 0.05% of the total amount of public expenditure set out each year in the PFPL 2023-2027.

The High Council also stresses that the balance and expenditure trajectory set out in the current PFPL is obsolete, due to the sharp deterioration in public finances observed since its enactment at the end of 2023, limiting the scope of the comparison with the PFPL to which the High Council is bound.